More than 25 of the 59 members are to step aside
Almost half the Conservative councillors on the county’s largest local authority may not stand at next year’s election.
At least 20 and possibly as many as 25-plus members at Kent County Council (KCC) are not going to seek re-election in May 2025.
At its height, KCC Tories had 61 of the 81 seats at Sessions House, Maidstone, but shed two in the past year.
The high departure rate creates an extra headache for the ruling party, as incumbency brings a better chance of retaining a division.
But the Conservatives will fight the election against the backdrop of a hammering to Labour at the general election and having made tens of millions of pounds worth of cuts to residents’ services as KCC struggles to avoid going bust.
Some high-profile names have indicated they are going to step down, such as Cllrs Ros Binks, Sean Holden and Paul Cooper.
All five Tories at Tunbridge Wells will be targeted by the Liberal Democrats and are confident they can be won, not least against a backdrop of having taken control of the local council and returned an MP.
Depending on which extrapolation used, the Tories could be reduced to 34 seats, based on 2023 local election data, or 17 using general election results.
Privately, the Tories feel they can win just enough to stay in power although the presence of Reform UK may skew results beyond prediction.
But most local observers agree that Labour, as well as the Conservative, could be adversely affected by Reform UK.
Cllr Paul Cooper, who lost his borough council seat in May to the Green, has always indicated he would like to move on to pursue a busy business career and other interests. His Maidstone berth is likely to be a Lib Dem target.
With a strong general election showing in the Sevenoaks constituency the Lib Dems will also be targeting seats where Tories, such as Margot McArthur, may decide to stand down.
All three opposition groups at County Hall believe they can become the largest group and based on the results in July, when Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour swept to power, his party would seem most likely on paper.
If a ruling ‘rainbow alliance’ is to emerge, all will want to be in a position to appoint the new leader of the council.
One experienced Tory back bench member said: “It is hard to see us getting back into power and if we do, we won’t have anywhere near the same majority.
“The number of people departing probably tells its own story. There are a whole range of reasons why people are stepping away but some know they are going to lose.”
The Lib Dem Alex Eyre won a recent by-election to the Priory ward on Swale Borough Council, where worryingly for the Conservatives, Reform UK came in second with nearly 27% of the vote and the Tories someway behind in third with 20%.
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